The crypto market is becoming more vibrant, with major altcoins like ETH continuing to grow as BTC trades sideways near its All-Time High (ATH). Hopes for an altcoin season have returned, and we'll examine the signals to see if one is on the horizon.

Market Overview

US equities closed with declines across all three indices on Monday (August 11th, US), with the Dow Jones dropping the most at 0.45%. Stock futures showed an upward bias. Oil prices rose slightly to $64 per barrel. Gold held steady around $3397 per ounce.

Regarding tariffs, President Trump signed an executive order yesterday to extend the deadline for Chinese tariffs by 90 days. This news was not unexpected, as both countries had discussed it after a previous meeting in Europe.

Bitcoin saw a minor correction compared to the previous day but remained stable, trading around $119,000. Many major altcoins saw slight declines, while some traded sideways or saw minor gains. The overall crypto market capitalization is hovering around $4 trillion.

US BTC spot ETFs continued to see inflows of $178 million. In a surprising turn, ETH spot ETFs saw an extremely large inflow, setting a new record with a staggering $1.018 billion. This massive capital injection into ETH ETFs signals strong institutional confidence in Ethereum.

Altcoin Season and the M2 Money Supply

There are two main perspectives on Bitcoin: one views it as "digital gold," which benefits when financial markets are unstable; the other sees it as an investment asset similar to a tech stock, dependent on liquidity and the stock market. This makes Bitcoin interesting, as it can be expected to appreciate in both good and bad conditions, depending on your viewpoint. For years, Robert Kiyosaki has maintained the perspective that financial markets will experience strong corrections due to cycles of monetary expansion and contraction.

The crypto market has recently become more vibrant and optimistic, particularly with renewed talk of a potential "altcoin season." While not many coins have set new ATHs, the majority of the market has recorded gains in the past week and month, strengthening investor confidence.

The possibility of an altcoin season heavily depends on the movements of Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply. M2 is the total amount of circulating currency, including cash and short-term deposits, compiled from data from 21 major central banks, including the Fed (US), the European Central Bank, Japan, and Canada. During the pandemic, M2 surged due to economic stimulus packages but later contracted when central banks tightened policies and raised interest rates, which drove Bitcoin from $69,000 down to $15,000. M2 is now back on an upward trend, albeit at a slower pace.

Observations show that M2 often precedes Bitcoin's price movements by about 2–3 months. When liquidity increases, high-risk assets like tech stocks and crypto tend to benefit. Even though the Fed has not officially eased, the global M2 supply is still rising, thanks to other central banks, especially in Europe and China. In contrast, the US M2 has only returned to its May 2022 level, partly because the Fed continues to sell bonds to drain money from the economy.

The Fed continues to maintain high interest rates due to persistent US inflation, which has recently seen a slight uptick. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell believes that inflation is influenced by factors such as tariffs and emphasizes that the labor market remains stable. However, recent jobs data has been sharply revised downwards for several months, suggesting the real picture might be less positive. This increases the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates to support the economy, with the market predicting an 86.5% probability for the first cut in September, followed by cuts in October and December.

If the upcoming CPI report is higher than forecasted, expectations for rate cuts could shift. In this context, investors should pay close attention to M2 movements, as it remains a crucial signal for Bitcoin's price trend. As long as M2 maintains an upward trend and Bitcoin remains stable, capital is likely to flow into altcoins, giving us a chance to see a new altcoin season.

The Global Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy

Strategy purchased 155 BTC for approximately $18 million (at an average price of $116,401 per BTC). As of August 10, 2025, they hold 628,946 BTC, acquired for a total of approximately $46.09 billion (at an average price of $73,288 per BTC). The company's 5-year investment journey into Bitcoin, which began in August 2020 with $250 million to buy 21,454 BTC, has helped its stock surge nearly 2,600% and ended a 20-year stagnation. Michael Saylor states that the company will continue to acquire more Bitcoin, with plans to raise $84 billion in the next two years. Currently, Strategy holds approximately $28.8 billion in unrealized profit from this investment.

In addition, many other companies are continuing to acquire BTC. In the week of August 4–10, there were 53 announcements related to corporate Bitcoin treasuries, totaling approximately 5,000 BTC. Specifically: 6 companies established new treasuries (1,039.79 BTC), 8 have future purchasing plans (approximately $145 million), 24 companies bought an additional 3,923 BTC, 7 have supplemental purchase plans, and 8 made other related disclosures.

Michael Saylor not only made the Strategy company famous with its soaring stock but also became a pioneer in promoting the Bitcoin accumulation movement among businesses. However, not all companies have the same unwavering conviction as Strategy. When the market is strong, many investors and companies join in, but when the market sours, most will exit. Therefore, even though the Bitcoin accumulation movement is growing, there is still a possibility of a massive sell-off from some companies facing difficulties, which could negatively impact the price. Companies are just like individual investors; some are resilient, while others are quick to exit depending on market conditions.

Other Key Crypto & Market Updates

Nvidia and AMD will share 15% of their chip sales revenue in China with the US government in exchange for export licenses. The license for Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308 AI chips was granted last week, marking an unprecedented agreement to maintain access to the Chinese market. This highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics impacting the semiconductor and AI industries.

BNB Network Company (BNC) has purchased 200,000 BNB tokens worth $160 million, becoming the largest holder of BNB globally. This transaction occurred after BNC successfully raised $500 million through a private placement led by 10X Capital, in collaboration with YZi Labs. This signifies a strong push for corporate adoption and a new business model around BNB.

Paxos, the company behind PayPal's stablecoin, is applying for a national trust bank license from the OCC to hold customer assets and process payments faster, but without taking deposits or issuing loans. Paxos aims to upgrade its New York state license to a federal one to enhance its credibility without changing its business model. Circle and Ripple are also seeking similar licenses, but Ripple's plan is being opposed by 42 major banks due to concerns over standards and transparency. Currently, only Anchorage Digital has been granted this license. This highlights the ongoing "turf war" between traditional finance and crypto firms.

Blue Origin, owned by Jeff Bezos, has partnered with Shift4 to accept payments in crypto and stablecoins (BTC, ETH, SOL, USDT, USDC) for space flights, with payments made through wallets like Coinbase Wallet or Metamask. The goal is to serve international customers and high-value transactions. Blue Origin has already flown over 75 people to space, including Justin Sun. Virgin Galactic has also accepted Bitcoin since 2013 and has completed 12 flights. This marks a new frontier for crypto payments, extending into the space economy.

Sources

• Bloomberg
• CoinDesk
• U.S. Treasury
• TradingView
• Reuters
• SEC
• White House Press Office
• CryptoQuant
• The Block
• Coingecko
• Dune Analytics
• Truth Social
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
• Nvidia Investor Relations
• AMD Investor Relations
• YZi Labs
• 10X Capital
• Paxos
• Shift4
• Blue Origin
• Virgin Galactic

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.

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