This week brings several notable US economic data releases. In the crypto space, two key legislative bills could move closer to a vote this week, potentially shaping the future of digital asset regulation.

Market Overview

On Sunday, June 29th, US stock futures saw gains across all three major indices, each rising over 0.3%. Oil futures experienced a slight decline to $64.8 per barrel, and gold also corrected downwards to $3280 per ounce.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $108,000 before settling back around $107,000. Most major altcoins remained flat or saw slight gains. The overall crypto market capitalization stood at $3.43 trillion.

This week, investors are closely monitoring a series of important US economic data, particularly the employment figures and unemployment rate to be released on Thursday. Additionally, the market awaits updates on the timing of congressional votes for the GENIUS (stablecoin) bill and President Trump's spending plans.

Key economic events include: the ADP employment report on Wednesday; initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, and the official employment report on Thursday; along with the ISM manufacturing and services indices to be released on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. The US market will observe a holiday on Friday (July 4th) for Independence Day.

Trump Continues to Pressure Fed on Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has yet to signal any interest rate cuts, a stance that continues to draw dissatisfaction from President Trump. In an interview on FOX, President Trump again criticized Fed Chairman Jay Powell as "stupid" for maintaining excessively high interest rates. He argued that the US should lower interest rates to 1-2%, similar to Switzerland, to alleviate global economic pressure. He stated he would only refinance the upcoming $9 trillion debt due for maturity on a short-term basis, rather than locking in high interest rates for 10 years. Trump also revealed he is considering three candidates to replace Powell when his term ends next May, emphasizing: "I like anyone but Powell." Among them is Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, whom he described as "very talented."

Concurrently, Vice President J.D. Vance also criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He stated he would like to hear an explanation for why Powell cut interest rates by 0.50% just before the election, but now cannot do so when inflation is lower. Legally, dismissing a Fed chair without just cause is highly difficult, making an early replacement unlikely. The President can only replace Powell when his term ends in May 2026 by nominating a new candidate for the Fed chair position. President Trump might be contemplating an early announcement of a successor to divert market attention from Powell's current statements. Because financial markets operate on future expectations, if the market believes interest rates will fall next year, optimism will return, even if current rates remain unchanged.

Updates on the GENIUS Stablecoin Bill

The US Congress has reached a new agreement to expedite crypto legislation. After days of discussion, Senate and White House leaders have agreed not to combine the market structure bill (CLARITY) and the stablecoin bill (GENIUS). This means the two bills will continue to be voted on separately.

Senator Tim Scott stated: "We are committed to completing the market structure bill before the end of September." This target is later than the initial August deadline set by President Trump. The White House expects to introduce the bill before the August recess, hold an amendment session in early September, and vote by the end of September.

Legislation related to stablecoins and crypto has been discussed for years without resolution. Once it became a focused discussion, progress accelerated rapidly. If the stablecoin bill passes, it will significantly boost crypto development as stablecoins are the backbone of DeFi and other crypto platforms and altcoins. Moreover, stablecoins serve as a crucial conduit for traditional capital to enter the crypto market. This legislative momentum provides much-needed regulatory clarity and fosters innovation in the digital asset space.

Chamath Palihapitiya: Why Bitcoin Could Surge Post-Halving and Rival Gold

Chamath Palihapitiya, founder and CEO of Social Capital, explains that to truly understand Bitcoin, one needs to closely examine its price action after each "halving" event. A Bitcoin halving is when the reward miners receive for creating new Bitcoin is cut in half. Imagine managing an orange farm, and overnight, your trees only produce half the number of oranges. Because fewer new oranges (or fewer Bitcoin) are introduced to the market, each unit becomes scarcer and potentially more valuable.

Palihapitiya shares that after previous halving events, Bitcoin's price typically follows a similar pattern. In the first one to three months post-halving, most investors are bewildered and cautious. They're like shoppers at a market wondering if orange prices will rise or fall. But from the sixth to the eighteenth month after a halving, Bitcoin's price has historically seen significant surges. For example, 18 months after the first halving, Bitcoin's price increased 45-fold. After the second halving, it rose nearly 28 times, and after the third, approximately 8 times. Even the lowest increase among these instances is considered monumental compared to traditional markets.

Chamath notes that this is particularly significant because, in addition to the halving, Bitcoin is now being heavily "commercialized" through Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs are financial products that allow investors to buy Bitcoin easily, just like purchasing stocks through a regular brokerage account. He believes these ETFs could be a turning point, helping Bitcoin go mainstream, as people no longer have to worry about complex digital wallets or security keys.

He emphasizes that looking at average increases from previous cycles does not mean he is predicting the future. It's merely historical data, not financial advice. But if you take the average increase from the second and third halving events and apply it to Bitcoin's current price, you'll see enormous upside potential.

Many countries with weak and depreciating currencies may begin to use Bitcoin alongside their national currencies. Imagine living somewhere where your currency loses value rapidly, like your salary at the end of the year being worth only half its initial value. People in such places might use local currency for daily expenses but use Bitcoin to store long-term wealth, similar to buying gold bars or real estate to preserve monetary value.

Ultimately, Chamath believes that if Bitcoin continues to appreciate as it has in previous cycles, it could gradually replace gold as the primary "store of value." Combined with concerns about the US dollar losing purchasing power, he believes this could create significant opportunities for investors and nations. In summary, Chamath emphasizes that ETFs make Bitcoin more accessible, creating diverse buying pressure and attracting long-term investors. Bitcoin has immense potential, especially in countries with weak currencies, and could become the primary store of value as the US dollar loses purchasing power.

Adam Livingston: Companies Holding BTC Are Redefining Value

Adam Livingston, author of “The Bitcoin Age” and “The Great Harvest,” posits that companies holding Bitcoin are not valueless; in fact, they are fundamentally redefining the concept of value. A common misconception today is that enterprise value stems solely from products, revenue, and cash flow, leading to misjudgments of companies like Metaplanet or MicroStrategy, which primarily hold Bitcoin. Livingston emphasizes that value is not solely based on traditional business operations; business income is merely one way to generate capital, not the sole definition of value. He cites Tesla and MicroStrategy, arguing that their exchange of high-value assets to purchase Bitcoin is a strategy for acquiring undervalued assets.

He suggests that the model of converting shares into Bitcoin acts like a "financial machine," where a company can turn $1 of stock into $10 of Bitcoin value, creating asset leverage for shareholders. Actual value is defined by the market, as investors are willing to pay many times more to indirectly own Bitcoin, as MicroStrategy was once valued at 20–30 times its Net Asset Value (NAV). Livingston asserts that EBITDA is unnecessary if a company is accumulating Bitcoin; this is the new standard of value, and the strategy of accumulating Bitcoin can be considered a core business activity in the context of increasing inflation and national debt. According to him, the "product" of 21st-century companies is the amount of Bitcoin per share, allowing investors to access Bitcoin efficiently through a unique financial structure.

However, this perspective also faces numerous critiques from a traditional viewpoint. A company that solely accumulates Bitcoin without generating intrinsic cash flow faces significant risk during market volatility, as a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price would lead to a loss of value without offsetting revenue. Valuing based on Bitcoin price appreciation expectations is a gamble dependent on market sentiment, similar to previous dot-com bubbles. The strategy of continuously issuing shares to buy Bitcoin also has limits due to shareholder dilution, especially if Bitcoin does not appreciate enough to compensate. Furthermore, legal and accounting risks remain significant challenges without a clear regulatory framework for the "Bitcoin treasury company" model, alongside high concentration risk when the entire company's value hinges on Bitcoin.

In summary, Bitcoin-holding companies can generate value based on belief in Bitcoin's future rather than traditional business performance. Adam Livingston argues for updating how value is defined to suit the new era, while traditional finance still prioritizes criteria such as cash flow, risk control, and business sustainability.

Other Key Crypto & Global Updates

Cel AI PLC, a UK-based artificial intelligence company, successfully raised $10.3 million (approximately £7.5 million) to acquire additional Bitcoin for its corporate treasury. This move highlights the growing convergence of AI and crypto in corporate strategies.

The US Senate voted to initiate the formal debate process on President Trump's spending bill but has not yet passed it. Elon Musk strongly criticized the bill, arguing it harms future industries and will lead to millions of job losses. The bill is projected to increase the budget deficit by $3–5 trillion over the coming decades. After debate and amendments, the Senate will hold a final vote before sending it back to the House and then to the President for signature into law.

Daily revenue for Bitcoin miners has fallen to approximately $34 million—its lowest level since April 2025. Despite this, miners are not capitulating but maintaining long-term conviction, with only about 6,000 BTC being transferred to exchanges daily, much lower than the 23,000 BTC seen in February. Mid-sized miners have also accumulated over 4,000 BTC since March, pushing their reserves to the highest level since November 2024. This suggests resilience and long-term holding strategies among miners even during revenue downturns.

Bhutan has been discreetly mining Bitcoin since 2020, leveraging its abundant hydroelectric power. It now possesses BTC valued at $1.3 billion, equivalent to about 40% of its national GDP, making it the 6th largest holder of Bitcoin globally. Instead of purchasing on the open market, Bhutan self-mines and views Bitcoin as a store of value similar to gold. This unique national strategy showcases the potential for Bitcoin to be integrated into national economic frameworks.

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, warned that unique digital ID systems for each person could threaten privacy and anonymity. He proposed a solution called "pluralistic identity"—a flexible and decentralized model that allows users to maintain multiple digital identities to protect anonymity and ensure equitable access. This reflects ongoing discussions within the blockchain community about privacy-preserving identity solutions.

Gemini exchange has launched tokenized shares of Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) for EU investors, in partnership with digital securities provider Dinari. On-chain trading allows 24/7 buying and selling with low fees, while holding both cryptocurrency and stock on the same platform without needing conversion. Gemini expects to add more tokenized stocks and ETFs in the near future. This innovation blurs the lines between traditional finance and crypto, offering new investment opportunities.

Sources

• Bloomberg
• CoinDesk
• U.S. Treasury
• TradingView
• Reuters
• SEC
• White House Press Office
• Federal Reserve
• Chamath Palihapitiya (Social Capital)
• Adam Livingston ("The Bitcoin Age," "The Great Harvest")
• Kaspersky
• Bit Digital Investor Relations
• Ripple Labs
• Gemini Exchange
• Vitalik Buterin's Blog

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.