This week, the market will receive a lot of major news related to the US economy. News about tariffs is also creating a stir.

Market Overview

This week, the US financial market is quite active, with a focus on employment data and a Senate hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Fed Board of Governors. On Monday (September 1st), US markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday. Starting Wednesday (September 3rd), investors will be watching for speeches from regional Fed Presidents, the Fed's Beige Book report, and JOLTS data. Thursday (September 4th) will bring a series of important data, including the ADP employment report, jobless claims, and Stephen Miran's hearing, along with additional speeches from other Fed Presidents. The week's focus will be on Friday (September 5th) with the national jobs report and the US unemployment rate—key data points for the market to assess the outlook for monetary policy.

Bitcoin's price yesterday was at $109,154, recovering from its previous level of $107,400. Compared to its August 14th peak of $124,500, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 12.46%, but for the month, it's only down 5.72%. Despite the correction, the long-term trend remains positive, and the BTC price has held above $100,000 for 115 consecutive days. Ethereum fell to $4,462, but August still saw a 20.84% gain after a nearly 49% increase in July. Other major altcoins saw minor corrections yesterday. The overall crypto market capitalization stands at $3.8 trillion.

Although August and September are historically periods of correction with a high probability of red closes, the historical trend for Q4 is often very optimistic, except in years that fall into a "crypto winter." Overall, despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains positive.

Tariff Ruling Creates Controversy, Awaiting Supreme Court

This past weekend, the public and markets continued to buzz about a new ruling from a US federal appeals court regarding President Trump's tariff policies. The court concluded that the majority of the tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal, as the power to make tariff decisions belongs to Congress, not the President. The hearing involved 11 of the 12 judges of the Federal Appeals Court, with 7 voting that the tariffs exceeded the president's authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This act only allows the president to act quickly in temporary and limited emergency situations, not to impose high, widespread, and long-term tariffs as Trump did.

The appeals court noted that Trump's tariffs were not only excessively high but were also applied to many countries simultaneously with no specific end date. As a result, the portion of affected imports is expected to drop sharply, from about 69% to just 16% if the ruling is enforced. However, not all tariffs were canceled: tariffs on steel and aluminum (under Section 232) and measures related to goods under $800 imported from China remain in effect. This is seen as a shock to Trump's core trade policy, but it also opens up the possibility that he will shift to applying tariffs by industry rather than by country.

Despite the ruling, an immediate impact has not occurred. The appeals court's decision has been stayed until October 14th, pending Trump and his legal team's appeal to the Supreme Court. Ultimately, the Supreme Court will be the body that makes the final decision on the legality of these tariffs. In the meantime, the tariffs continue to be applied as before, maintaining the current status quo of trade policy.

From a market perspective, investor sentiment is generally unfavorable towards tariffs because they reduce capital flows and put pressure on asset prices. In this context, if the majority of tariffs are canceled, it could send a positive signal in the short term by reducing the burden on imports and creating a more open environment for capital. However, the possibility of President Trump shifting to industry-specific tariffs opens up a more complex scenario, which could lead to significant and unpredictable market volatility. Conversely, if the Supreme Court supports Trump's position, the status quo will be maintained, and tariffs will continue to exist as they are, preserving the existing pressure on trade and the market.

Overall, the stock and crypto markets remained sideways this past weekend, with no major volatility following the ruling. The event primarily reignited concerns about the sustainability of tariff policies but did not create a significant change. Investors will now have to wait for the final ruling from the Supreme Court for more clarity on the direction of US trade policy.

From Skepticism to Conviction: A Shared Journey

Many individuals who were once skeptical of Bitcoin have now changed their minds. Jerome Powell once said Bitcoin has "no store of value," but by 2024, he was calling it "digital gold." Donald Trump, who was critical in 2019, now declares he wants to make the US a "Bitcoin superpower." BlackRock CEO Larry Fink once called Bitcoin a "money-laundering tool" but after launching his ETF, he affirmed it is a legitimate asset. Jamie Dimon, though still cautious, now provides crypto services because his clients demand them. Even figures like Mark Cuban and Michael Saylor went from skepticism to strong support.

The common story is this: many people were initially skeptical, then they convinced themselves, and became the most fervent believers. This conviction does not come from others, but from personal experience, as Bitcoin has repeatedly overcome crises and continued to exist. This is the source of the network's strength: everyone participates for their own self-interest, and that very interest helps make Bitcoin sustainable.

I have conviction in Bitcoin because I was once skeptical myself, and when I convinced myself I was wrong, that belief became more intense than if I had just listened to others. Those with true conviction will see major price drops as an opportunity to accumulate, rather than a cause for worry. People buy Bitcoin at a price they find worthy, and I started buying when Bitcoin was near $1,000, even though I missed the early stages. The fact that Bitcoin has not disappeared after countless negative events is the most solid reason to believe that this currency can continue to grow, perhaps one day reaching price points that no one dared to imagine before.

Other Key Crypto & Market Updates

Michael Saylor is signaling that MicroStrategy is preparing to buy more BTC, emphasizing that "Bitcoin is still on Sale." This public statement aims to attract more investors and reinforce their long-term conviction.

In other countries, China's Airnet Technology has purchased 819 BTC (about $90 million) from the $180 million capital it raised. This indicates continued corporate accumulation even from China, where regulations are tighter.

Additionally, the University of Hong Kong Business School (HKU) is preparing to accept tuition and donations in Bitcoin and other digital currencies. Professor Cai Hongbin said the technical details are ready. This marks a significant step for institutional adoption in education.

In the US, Gucci has officially started accepting payments in crypto, such as ETH and DOGE, at some of its US stores, marking a major step for the luxury brand into the digital economy.

Sources

• Bloomberg
• CoinDesk
• U.S. Treasury
• TradingView
• Reuters
• SEC
• White House Press Office
• Federal Appeals Court
• Airnet Technology Investor Relations
• University of Hong Kong
• Gucci Official Announcements
• MicroStrategy Investor Relations

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.