Market Sentiment Strengthens As Bitcoin Stays Above $90,000

Bitcoin remains stable above $95,000, continuing its momentum while broader market sentiment turns more optimistic. Although many major altcoins saw slight declines, the total crypto market capitalization stands at $3.086 trillion. Polymarket currently reflects an 85% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in May, a reflection of how close the asset is to breaching that significant psychological threshold.

Bitcoin’s Correlation With Global M2 Liquidity

A key macro driver for Bitcoin remains the global M2 money supply, a liquidity gauge that includes cash and short-term bank deposits. Historically, Bitcoin prices have tended to align with the expansion or contraction of M2. As of now, M2 is rising rapidly in regions like China, Japan, and Europe due to accommodative monetary policy. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach, still engaging in quantitative tightening (QT) rather than initiating quantitative easing (QE).

U.S. M2 has only just begun to rebound from early 2024 levels and remains below its 2022 peak. This divergent policy stance has made Bitcoin’s current rally different from previous post-halving cycles in 2017 and 2021. While BTC has surged past $100K, altcoins have not followed with the same intensity. The reason lies in institutional capital favoring Bitcoin and the Fed’s delayed pivot in monetary easing.

President Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to cut rates early to stave off recession risk. However, Fed officials await clearer signals of disinflation before acting, with additional uncertainty from tariff policy still clouding economic outlooks. Market participants anticipate no rate cut in the upcoming May FOMC meeting.

Despite these delays, M2 remains the underlying catalyst. When the Fed does pivot to full-scale easing, markets could enter a new growth phase. Investors are watching altcoins for breakout potential should Bitcoin print new highs. The Trump administration’s first 100 days have bolstered crypto confidence through the creation of a Bitcoin reserve fund, clemency for Ross Ulbricht, and deregulatory efforts targeting agencies like the SEC and Fed.

Trump’s Tariff Policies Create Mixed Sentiment

Despite clear pro-crypto moves, Trump’s tariff strategies have added volatility. After BTC touched $109K, it has corrected to around $96K amid growing unease over trade policy ambiguity. Without new retail demand, altcoins remain subdued. Continued Trump support will be crucial in sustaining a bullish crypto policy backdrop.

Warren Buffett To Retire; Berkshire Cash Pile Swells

Warren Buffett has announced he will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by year-end after a 55-year tenure. Greg Abel has been named successor. Meanwhile, Berkshire has amassed a record $347.7 billion in cash as of Q1 2025. While the massive war chest has sparked recession speculation, Buffett clarified that the cash increase stems from valuation growth, not macro pessimism.

Approximately 70% of Berkshire’s portfolio remains in equities, and its longstanding strategy includes maintaining cash for flexibility. Buffett reiterated this positioning is not a signal of economic doom, but rather disciplined preparedness for future opportunities.

Crypto Momentum Builds in U.S. Regulatory and Private Sectors

Recent crypto developments in the U.S. span both public and private domains. In Arizona, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill despite bipartisan approval, citing Bitcoin’s perceived immaturity as an asset class. Observers believe the veto is politically motivated, as Hobbs has committed to blocking all bills until disability funding is resolved. Another bill that would allow 10% of the state’s rainy-day fund to be allocated to digital assets remains under review.

In contrast, Apple lifted its long-standing ban on crypto payments within iOS apps, potentially paving the way for broader adoption across its ecosystem. Morgan Stanley also announced it is developing crypto trading on its E*Trade platform, with a projected launch in 2026 — highlighting Wall Street’s long-term crypto commitment.

Institutions and Corporations Accelerate Bitcoin Treasury Strategy

Major players continue adding BTC to their reserves. Brown University, an Ivy League institution, invested $5 million into BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy doubled its capital raise to $84 billion to acquire more BTC. Metaplanet, listed in Japan, launched a new U.S. entity, Metaplanet Treasury Corp, in Miami, signaling global expansion of its BTC reserve model.

Europe’s The Blockchain Group (TBG) outlined an ambitious plan to adopt the Bitcoin Standard. By 2033, it aims to accumulate up to 260,000 BTC — potentially nearing 1% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply. The strategy involves raising €100 billion by the early 2030s, positioning TBG to become Europe’s most valuable public firm if Bitcoin hits €1–2 million.

Tether Strengthens Market Position

Tether earned over $1 billion in Q1 2025, mainly from U.S. Treasury interest. Despite a decline from the previous quarter’s $6 billion profit, Tether’s $120 billion in Treasury holdings remains a record, with a $5.6 billion buffer for USDT stability. CEO Paolo Ardoino stated Tether will not register under Europe’s MiCA due to risks to small banks and the stablecoin model. He criticized ECB’s digital euro ambitions and defended USDT’s global utility.

Additional Global Developments

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet President Trump next week to negotiate a trade deal. Metaplanet issued ¥3.6 billion in zero-coupon bonds to buy more BTC, offering investors warrant rights as an incentive — a complex version of convertible bonds adapted to Japanese regulations.

Ripple reportedly offered to acquire Circle for $5 billion, which Circle rejected as undervaluing its business ahead of a planned U.S. IPO. Meanwhile, RLUSD — Ripple’s stablecoin — trails behind Circle’s USDC with a market cap just over $300 million.

The European Union plans to enforce strict AML regulations by 2027, banning anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. Bitcoin remains unaffected due to traceable public addresses.

In the U.K., regulators plan to ban crypto purchases using borrowed funds like credit cards. A YouGov survey showed 14% of Britons now use leverage for crypto investing, up from 6% in 2022.

Lastly, Tesla denied rumors it’s seeking a new CEO and reaffirmed full confidence in Elon Musk’s leadership.

Conclusion

After 100 days of Trump’s new term, Bitcoin stands resilient above $90K, with strong institutional support and ongoing crypto policy shifts in the U.S. Despite macro headwinds and regulatory challenges, the market remains optimistic, awaiting the next Fed move and watching for fresh capital inflows into altcoins.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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