Global financial and crypto markets remain volatile amidst ongoing war concerns related to Iran, with new updates from President Trump. While the US Fed holds steady on interest rates, other nations, notably Switzerland, have continued aggressive easing, with its central bank cutting rates to 0%.
Market Overview
US equities closed lower across both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 on Thursday, June 19th. Stock futures also continued to decline. Gold prices dropped to $3384 per ounce, while oil saw a slight increase to $75.66 per barrel.

Bitcoin experienced a slight dip, hovering around $104,000. Most altcoins continued their downward trend. The overall crypto market capitalization decreased to $3.36 trillion.

The percentage of Bitcoin in profit has adjusted to 92.97% as BTC holds around the $104,000 mark. This indicates that despite recent minor fluctuations, the vast majority of Bitcoin holders remain in profit, reflecting underlying strength.

Updates on the Israel-Iran Conflict: Trump's Ultimatum
The White House Press Secretary delivered a direct message from President Trump regarding Iran: given the significant possibility of future negotiations (or lack thereof) with Iran in the near future, "I will make a decision on whether or not to proceed [with attacking Iran] within the next two weeks." Typically, President Trump communicates such updates via his social media accounts, making this formal channel noteworthy.
Yesterday, reports from the Wall Street Journal and Fox News indicated that President Trump is considering the possibility of US military strikes targeting Iran, potentially including nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, the New York Times reported that Iran has prepared missiles and military equipment to retaliate, ready to strike US bases if Washington launches military action.
President Trump later refuted reports of negotiations with Iran, asserting his readiness to engage in dialogue only if Iran initiated contact. He emphasized: "If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have accepted the deal previously offered – that could have saved so many lives."
President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling him an "easy target" and confirming that the US knows his whereabouts. President Trump declared, "Our patience is running thin," stressing that Iran must surrender unconditionally before any tougher options are considered. This intense rhetoric signals a heightened state of alert and potential for direct military action, significantly contributing to market uncertainty.
War is something no one wishes for, as it causes immense damage and widespread impact. However, in the long term, geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war or tensions between Israel, Iran, and the US often only have a temporary effect on financial and crypto markets. Initially, asset prices can fluctuate wildly due to anxiety, but after a period, markets typically stabilize. Information related to war is often noisy, unclear, or contradictory, causing negative market reactions due to a lack of certainty. However, once information becomes clear, whether good or bad, the market can still recover. Generally, the long-term impact on financial markets from such conflicts is usually not significant, and we need to be discerning about information sources to avoid panic.
Switzerland Cuts Interest Rates to 0%: The Risk of Negative Rates
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered its interest rate from 0.25% to 0% due to low inflation and sluggish growth, while also warning that it could revert to negative interest rates if the situation worsens. This decision by Switzerland stems from three main issues: persistent low inflation, weak domestic demand, a strong Swiss Franc hindering exports, and a global trend towards monetary policy easing.

Negative interest rates, while intended to stimulate lending and spending, can penalize depositors, create financial bubbles, encourage capital outflow, and reduce bank profitability. Switzerland previously implemented negative interest rates from 2015–2022, which helped avert deflation but led to various consequences, including losses for savers (especially retirees), reduced bank profits, increased speculation in risky assets (real estate, stocks, and crypto bubbles), and the risk of currency wars.
While negative interest rates can provide short-term economic support, they carry significant inherent risks. Savers have to pay fees instead of earning interest, disproportionately affecting retirees and conservative investors. Banks face narrowed profit margins, potentially forcing them to charge depositors, putting pressure on the financial system. Cheap borrowing costs can easily lead to asset bubbles in areas like real estate, equities, and crypto, encouraging riskier investment behavior. If multiple countries lower interest rates to weaken their domestic currencies, the risk of currency wars increases.
In Switzerland, a depositor with 100,000 CHF at a -0.5% interest rate would lose 500 CHF annually, eroding savings incentives and pushing capital into riskier assets or abroad. The SNB has stated it would only consider negative rates in unavoidable circumstances, such as a global crisis or an excessively strong franc.
Japan's experience with negative interest rates, applied since 2016 to combat deflation and stimulate investment, did not yield expected long-term results. The public maintained high savings rates, banks weakened due to reduced profit margins, growth remained sluggish, and inflation stayed low. Despite strong stimulus, capital primarily flowed abroad. Japan only began to exit negative rates in 2024 after nearly a decade, demonstrating that withdrawing from this policy is a difficult process, akin to recovering from long-term addiction.
Ultimately, financial markets, including traditional monetary policy and assets like Bitcoin, are vast experiments—with many unpredictable elements that defy conventional logical assumptions. From pandemics, interest rates, house prices, car prices... everything demonstrates that markets operate far more complexly than we imagine, and everything seemingly certain can be reversed. This highlights Bitcoin's appeal as a non-sovereign asset outside the direct influence of traditional central bank policies.
US Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill, South Korea Reacts
President Trump has lauded the US Senate's overwhelming approval of the Stablecoin Bill (GENIUS Act) with a 68–30 vote. He announced he would sign it into law immediately if the House of Representatives also passes it, emphasizing that digital assets are the future and the US needs to lead in this sector.

This bill is expected to establish a foundational legal framework for stablecoins, which are considered the "backbone" of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. This development has not only garnered attention in the US but has also raised concerns among central banks worldwide, particularly in South Korea.
The Governor of the Bank of Korea expressed concerns that issuing stablecoins pegged to the Korean won might not reduce reliance on the USD, but could instead accelerate dollarization. This is because USD-pegged stablecoins are still preferred due to their stability and widespread acceptance in cross-border transactions and DeFi platforms.
Furthermore, the proliferation of stablecoins could diminish the role of traditional banks, making it challenging to control exchange rates and capital flows. However, stablecoins also offer positive aspects, such as promoting digital finance, reducing cash dependence, and improving payment efficiency. The Bank of Korea stated it does not entirely oppose them but demands a strict regulatory framework. The US legalizing stablecoins could set a global precedent, boosting the popularity of USDT and USDC, thereby influencing the monetary policy and financial sovereignty of many nations. The US stands to benefit significantly from stablecoin adoption, and other countries are beginning to realize this.
Fed Holds Rates Steady: Powell's Cautious Stance
Following its meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep interest rates unchanged and signaled a potential for two rate cuts between now and the end of 2025. However, they reduced their forecast for the number of expected rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, totaling only four cuts, equivalent to 1%.

The "dot plot" chart revealed significant division among officials, with interest rate expectations for 2027 hovering around 3.4%. Notably, 7 out of 19 members do not anticipate any rate cuts in 2024, an increase from four members in March. This division highlights the ongoing debate within the Fed regarding the path of monetary policy.
President Trump's Reaction
President Donald Trump sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him "stupid" and suggesting he "probably won't make any rate cuts" after the Fed's Wednesday meeting. According to Trump, US interest rates should have been lowered by at least 2% in the current environment. He also expressed dissatisfaction, noting that while Europe has implemented 10 rate cuts in this cycle, the Fed has yet to make a similar move.

A statistic on global central bank rate cuts shows a consistent trend of reductions. In May, global central banks executed 15 rate cuts, the most significant reduction of the year, indicating renewed concerns about economic growth. Europe has cut rates 8 times in this cycle, but the US has maintained its rates due to inflation fears. This divergence is creating two distinct paths in global monetary policy. Ultimately, President Trump accused Powell of being politically motivated, claiming his decisions have caused significant financial losses for the US.

Fed Chairman Powell's Press Conference
The Fed decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25%–4.50%, demonstrating a cautious approach amidst persistent inflation uncertainties. Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current policy is in a "good position" and that the Fed is prepared to adjust if unexpected economic shifts occur. The tone of this press conference was neutral, leaning slightly dovish, with Chairman Powell emphasizing flexibility but making no short-term commitments to rate cuts.
Although recent inflation has shown a slight decrease, Powell stressed that the Fed relies not just on current data but also considers future forecasts. When questioned why rates weren't cut despite current inflation being lower than in December 2024, he explained that the context has changed. In December, new tariffs weren't yet reflected in forecasts. Currently, escalating trade tensions have increased the 2025 inflation forecast to 3.1%, 0.6% higher than before. He emphasized that monetary policy must anticipate risks, especially when the impact from tariffs hasn't fully appeared in the data.

The Fed's new economic projections indicate that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target, but not in the short term. Specifically, core PCE inflation is projected at 2.6% in 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% by 2027. Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations remain contained. However, the Fed anticipates a slight increase in inflation during the summer as newly tariffed imports replace old inventory. He stressed that inflation trends remain "very unpredictable," which is why the Fed needs to keep rates stable for now.

Regarding the labor market, Powell stated that the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%—a level considered healthy and consistent with maximum employment goals. Real wages (adjusted for inflation) are still steadily increasing, aligning with the 2% inflation target. Although new job creation has slowed and job seekers face more difficulty finding employment, there hasn't been a wave of large-scale layoffs. He warned that if unemployment rises concurrently with increased difficulty in finding jobs, the situation could deteriorate rapidly—a scenario the Fed is closely monitoring.
Notably, the Fed seems to be shifting from a "data-reactive" strategy to a "forecast-based" one, particularly on inflation. When pressed on this change, Powell defended the stance that the Fed has long been forward-looking, and in the current phase, caution is absolutely necessary as inflationary risks may be emerging faster than statistical data can reflect.
Politically, Powell dodged questions about President Trump's frequent criticisms and desire to replace him. When asked if he would remain as a Governor if not reappointed as Chairman, he simply stated his focus remains on inflation and employment—the two most crucial factors. When asked about the impact of fiscal policies like congressional spending bills, Powell said that's Congress's domain, and when policies are enacted, the Fed will update its models to make appropriate decisions.
Regarding the Israel-Iran conflict, he stated the Fed is monitoring it closely but isn't overly concerned about oil prices. He noted that the US economy is less dependent on imported oil today than in the 1970s, and there's no current sign that a long-term crisis of the old type will recur. On the concern that AI will replace many jobs, Powell suggested it's too early to conclude. AI can both replace and assist labor, and the technology is currently in its early stages of development.
Looking ahead, Powell indicated that the Fed is reviewing its monetary policy framework and will announce updates in the summer. Part of this involves re-evaluating the SEP (dot plot – economic forecasts) system to improve policy communication to the public. However, he also noted that too much change isn't necessary if the current system is effective.
In summary, the Fed's message is "patience and caution." Inflation is cooling, the economy is growing steadily, and the labor market shows no severe weakening. However, the Fed remains wary of tariff-related risks and hasn't ruled out rate cuts by year-end if conditions allow. Powell concluded that all Fed actions will revolve around two core objectives: price stability and maximum employment. Overall, Chairman Powell's remarks and responses were not particularly negative; his tone was moderate, and largely reiterated what the market already knew.
US Overhauls SLR: A Strategic Move to Boost the $29 Trillion Bond Market
US regulators are considering changing a rule to allow large banks to hold more government bonds without needing to retain as much reserve capital. This could help the government borrow money at lower costs and give banks more leeway to lend and trade.

This regulation, known as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), was introduced after the 2008 financial crisis to ensure banks had sufficient safety buffers. Currently, this rule includes all assets held by banks, even safe assets like government bonds.
The new proposal would exclude government bonds and central bank deposits from this calculation, allowing banks to buy and hold more of these assets. This offers two significant benefits: it makes it easier and cheaper for the US government to borrow money, and it gives banks more room to lend and trade, especially in the $29 trillion bond market. Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs wouldn't need to hold as much capital as before, potentially increasing profits, but also raising concerns about financial risk. This regulatory adjustment could significantly impact liquidity and activity in the US debt markets.
Other Key Crypto & Global Updates
The UK's annual inflation rate in May was 3.4%, as expected. Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, stood at 3.5%. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision this Thursday.
The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and gradually reduced government bond purchases to avoid shocking the market. After years of monetary easing to stimulate the economy, the Bank of Japan is shifting course as inflation rises and the yen weakens, marking a significant pivot in its long-standing policy.
Only about 3% of Iran's population can access the internet, seemingly due to active government disconnections aimed at controlling information amidst escalating protests. This isn't the first time Iran has used this measure—it completely cut off the internet in 2019 during a period of severe unrest. These digital blackouts have significant implications for information flow and social stability, particularly in a world increasingly reliant on online communication.
President Trump criticized Japan for being "tough" in negotiations and warned the European Union to offer a fair deal, or face higher tariffs. Meanwhile, the European Commission President stated that negotiations are progressing but remain complex, with the goal of completion before July 9th—the date retaliatory tariffs could take effect. Trump also mentioned a positive phone call with the Mexican President. Previously, he issued similar warnings to China but eventually reached an agreement.
Iran's largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, recently suffered a hack resulting in over $90 million in losses. The pro-Israel hacker group "Predatory Sparrow" claimed responsibility, stating it was an attack targeting the Iranian regime, particularly the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), rather than for profit. Stolen assets included Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, Ripple, Solana, Tron, and Ton. Notably, most of the funds were transferred to untraceable "burner" wallets—a symbolic act. Additionally, blockchain data indicates that Nobitex had previously transacted with wallets linked to Hamas and regional militant groups. This incident highlights the intersection of geopolitics and cybersecurity in the crypto space.
President Trump is considering military action against Iran and has held urgent meetings with security advisors. Despite issuing an ultimatum, he has left the door open for action. The US is also preparing plans to evacuate citizens from Israel. Iran has rejected negotiation reports and warned the US of consequences if it initiates war.
President Trump continued his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him "Mr. Too Late" and describing him as "the worst, a real idiot who is costing America trillions of dollars." Concurrently, the oversight agencies for two major financial institutions, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also spoke out, suggesting that Powell needs to quickly cut interest rates—or resign.
President Trump just signed an executive order extending the TikTok deadline by 90 days, pushing it to September 17, 2025. TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance, has long been a focal point in US-China tech and trade tensions due to national security and data sovereignty concerns. This extension provides a temporary reprieve but does not resolve the underlying issues.
South Korea is preparing to launch Spot Crypto ETFs! The Financial Services Commission (FSC) will announce a support roadmap by the end of this year, while also building infrastructure and ensuring investor safety. New laws will also tighten stablecoin regulation to international standards and review trading fees of major exchanges like Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone. This move signifies a significant step towards mainstream crypto adoption in a major Asian economy.
The UK company, The Smarter Web, recently purchased an additional 104.28 BTC, increasing its total Bitcoin holdings to 346.63 BTC. This further illustrates the continued institutional and corporate accumulation of Bitcoin.
Sources
- Bloomberg
- CoinDesk
- U.S. Treasury
- TradingView
- Reuters
- SEC
- Wall Street Journal
- Fox News
- New York Times
- White House Press Office
- Swiss National Bank
- Bank of Korea
- Bank of Japan
- UK Office for National Statistics
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.