Stocks and crypto saw a slight recovery at the start of the week, but news regarding tariffs and the macro economy remains unclear. Meanwhile, major funds and companies are continuing to accumulate BTC.

Market Overview

Stock and Crypto Movements

US equities closed higher across all three indices on Monday (October 20th, US), with all three gaining over 1.1%. Stock futures also continued to trend upward. Gold continued its ascent, reaching a new high of $4368 per ounce. Oil fell slightly to around $57.5 per barrel.

Bitcoin saw a recovery to around $111,000 but later dipped to around $107,000. Most major altcoins declined as BTC corrected. The overall crypto market capitalization fell to $3.75 trillion.

US BTC spot ETFs saw outflows on Monday, accounting for 40.4%, primarily from BlackRock's IBIT. ETH spot ETFs also saw $145.7 million in outflows. Conversely, the SOL ETF saw a significant inflow of $27 million.

US Government Shutdown Update

White House advisor Kevin Hass stated that the US government could soon reopen after a three-week temporary shutdown. This is the second-longest shutdown in history, surpassed only by the one during President Trump's first term. Despite its duration, the impact on the economy and financial markets is still unclear, as most previous shutdowns have followed a similar pattern and typically end when the two parties reach an agreement on the federal budget.

While new market participants may fear the risk of a financial recession, past crises (2000 and 2008) showed that economic downturns, while challenging for jobs and capital flow, are not the end. Businesses with liquid capital and low debt can survive and benefit when the economy recovers. From an investment perspective, crisis periods are always a psychological test. Long-term investors often choose to continue accumulating reliable assets, as history shows that asset values recover strongly after crises. The most important thing is not to avoid the recession entirely but to maintain a stable mindset and good preparation, as crises are an inevitable economic cycle. With experience, investors will no longer panic over bad news and can manage their emotions to act calmly in a volatile market.

US-China Tariff Update

President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 155% on November 1st if the two sides fail to reach an agreement. However, this statement is primarily aimed at creating negotiating leverage. President Trump and President Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the APEC conference later this month, making an agreement before the deadline highly likely. The fact that both sides are preparing for high-level visits in 2026 suggests that a trend toward cooperation is being maintained. The Chinese economy is slowing, with Q3 growth at 4.8%, its lowest in a year, due to a prolonged real estate crisis and weak demand, despite government capital injection and interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US economy is also showing signs of stagnation, which means neither side wants a trade war to escalate. The financial market's stable reaction suggests investors view this as a familiar negotiating tactic. Concurrently, the White House is preparing to reduce import tariffs for the automotive industry, extending a 5-year tax cut policy for imported components. This is a crucial step to help companies like Ford, GM, and Stellantis reduce costs and maintain production amidst rising global costs for steel, aluminum, and components.

Institutions Continue to Accumulate BTC

The Bitcoin market continues to record a strong accumulation wave from large institutions, despite short-term price volatility. Strategy recently purchased an additional 168 BTC for a total of approximately $18.8 million at an average price of $112,000 per BTC. This brings its total holdings to 640,418 BTC, equivalent to about $71 billion at the current market price. The average cost basis for this portfolio is approximately $74,010/BTC, further affirming the company's consistent long-term holding (HODL) strategy.

Concurrently, Singapore-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer Technologies ($BTDR) purchased an additional 65.6 BTC, raising its total holdings to 2,126.8 BTC. In Europe, Fragbite Group (FRAG.ST) in Sweden added 5.12 BTC, raising its total holdings to 24.88 BTC, while the UK's The Smarter Web Company ($SWC) is raising $1.6 million to expand its Bitcoin portfolio. Similarly, Capital B (ALCPB), backed by Blockstream founder Adam Back, bought an additional 6 BTC, raising its total holdings to 2,818 BTC (approximately 262.7 million euros).

Indirect investment activity in Bitcoin holding companies also saw a strong increase. The Vanguard Group Total International Stock Index Fund (VTIAX) spent $21.5 million to purchase shares of MetaPlanet ($MTPLF) in Q3/2025. This move is notable because Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager after BlackRock, still does not allow its clients to trade Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs.

Meanwhile, BlackRock officially launched its iShares Bitcoin ETP on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) after receiving approval from UK regulators. This is a significant step in expanding crypto investment products in Europe. Although the FCA still prohibits crypto derivatives products for retail investors, the agency stated it will continue to monitor the market to adjust policy accordingly. The UK has also approved the tokenization of investment funds, paving the way for the application of blockchain technology in asset management and financial innovation.

The latest report from Coinbase Institutional shows that 67% of institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's price over the next 3–6 months (corresponding to the first half of 2026). Coinbase experts assess that the upward cycle is continuing, supported by stable liquidity, loose monetary policy, and a more open attitude from regulatory agencies. Coinbase forecasts that two Fed interest rate cuts and economic stimulus packages from China will continue to drive capital flow into the crypto market in Q4/2025. Overall, this series of actions reflects a clear trend: institutional capital is continuously flowing into Bitcoin through both direct and indirect channels, even as major markets ease policies and recognize the role of digital assets in the global financial system.

Other Key Crypto & Market Updates

Eleanor Terrett reports that top leaders in the crypto industry, including the CEOs of Coinbase, Chainlink, Galaxy, Kraken, and Uniswap, will meet with pro-crypto Democratic Senators on Wednesday to discuss the market structure bill.

The Coinbase Institutional report shows that 67% of institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's price in the next 3–6 months. Coinbase forecasts two Fed interest rate cuts and economic stimulus packages from China will continue to drive capital flow into the crypto market in Q4/2025.

Jim Cramer commented that investors are rushing back into sectors like nuclear energy, data centers, quantum computing, and Bitcoin mining, as if nothing bad has happened, despite insider stock sales last week. Jim Cramer said, "Nail these gains down!!!!!," meaning "Take profits now before this rally disappears."

David Marcus—former President of PayPal and founder of Lightspark—said the US is entering a "new era of crypto" where the government has shifted from blocking Libra to seriously discussing legal frameworks and the possibility of establishing a Bitcoin reserve. He warned that the US risks falling behind if it doesn't quickly lead this race, and he suggested that Bitcoin is a superior version of gold, proposing to allocate a portion of gold reserves to Bitcoin to increase national asset value.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) experienced an internal technical failure that disrupted major platforms like Amazon, Reddit, Disney+, Snapchat, Canva, Venmo, and Coinbase for about 3 hours. Over 70 services, including internal Amazon systems, were affected. AWS confirmed there was no cyberattack or data loss, and the incident underscores the global internet's heavy reliance on cloud providers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.

Sources

• Bloomberg
• CoinDesk
• U.S. Treasury
• TradingView
• Reuters
• SEC
• White House Press Office
• MicroStrategy Investor Relations
• Bitdeer Technologies Investor Relations
• Fragbite Group Investor Relations
• The Smarter Web Company Investor Relations
• Capital B
• Vanguard Group Investor Relations
• BlackRock Official Announcements
• Coinbase Institutional Report
• Eleanor Terrett (Fox Business)
• Jim Cramer (CNBC)
• David Marcus (Lightspark)
• Amazon Web Services (AWS) Incident Report

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.

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