The market saw a major piece of good news yesterday regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. However, this failed to generate market optimism following a somewhat hawkish statement from the Fed after its interest rate announcement.

Market Overview

Stock Market Swings & Corporate Earnings

US equities ended mixed on Thursday (October 30th, US), with all three indices falling despite positive corporate quarterly reports. The Dow Jones dropped 0.23%, the S&P 500 fell 0.99%, and the Nasdaq plummeted 1.58%. Gold contracts rose to $4038 per ounce. Oil saw a slight decrease but remained around $60.29 per barrel.

• Amazon reported Q3 revenue of $180.17 billion and EPS of $1.95, both exceeding expectations, causing its stock to surge nearly 13% after hours.
• Apple also posted strong results, with revenue of $102.47 billion and EPS of $1.85, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales.
• Reddit surpassed forecasts with $585 million in revenue, and its stock rose 7%.
• Netflix announced a 1:10 stock split, and its share price gained 3.26%.
• Conversely, Meta dropped over 11% despite good earnings, due to a tax expense of $15.93 billion and plans to increase AI spending to $70–$72 billion. Investors fear a repeat of the Reality Labs failure (which previously lost over $50 billion), even though Meta affirms this AI investment will yield positive results.

Crypto Reaction & ETF Outflows

The crypto market reacted negatively following the Fed's announcement. Bitcoin dropped sharply to around $107,000 before recovering slightly to $108,000. Most major altcoins saw deeper declines. The overall crypto market capitalization fell to $3.73 trillion. This decline triggered the liquidation of over $1 billion in leveraged positions in just a few hours. Although a 6% drop in October is not massive compared to the 5% gain in September, expectations for a strong October rally were largely lost.

US BTC spot ETFs saw $488.4 million in outflows as BTC fell. Similarly, ETH spot ETFs also saw $184.2 million in outflows. The SOL ETF was an outlier, recording an inflow of $37.3 million.

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Historically, November is often a strong month for Bitcoin, with a 37% gain last year. Many investors are waiting to see if "Moonvember" will repeat this cycle. From the $15,000 bottom in 2022 to the current peak of $126,000, Bitcoin has seen impressive growth, though at a slower pace than previous cycles due to its larger market capitalization. Altcoins have yet to strongly follow suit, indicating that capital remains primarily focused on Bitcoin. However, strong volatility is expected to continue as the market enters the final two months of the year, a critical period for the Bitcoin 4-year cycle.

Fed Rate Cut Disappointment: Mortgage Rates Increase

The global market volatility this week was intensified by the confluence of the Fed meeting, announcements from other central banks, and large-scale options contract expiry. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates and end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy, both of which were announced, which should have supported the market. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent "hawkish" statement reversed sentiment, as he suggested that inflation is still high, the job market is still strong, and a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed.

Furthermore, the recent statement from the Fed Chair directly impacted the lives of Americans, not just the financial market. After the Fed cut interest rates, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.33% due to investors expecting interest rates to remain high for longer, which drove up bond yields. The Fed rate only indirectly affects mortgage rates, but when bond yields rise, the cost of borrowing for homes, cars, and businesses increases accordingly. For example, a $800,000 loan with an interest rate increase from 5% to 7% costs the borrower over $1,000 more per month, a difference of nearly $370,000 over 30 years.

US businesses are also negatively affected, as sustained high interest rates make refinancing difficult. High interest costs increase their debt payments, making it harder to maintain operations during economic downturns. Despite cooling inflation and a positive economic outlook, the Fed maintains a "hawkish" stance. Nevertheless, the market still forecasts over 70% probability that the Fed will implement another rate cut in December, and the halt in bond sales is viewed as a positive long-term signal.

US-China Trade Resolution & Trump's Success

The most anticipated news—an agreement between the world's two largest economies, the US and China—has arrived. President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping held a crucial meeting in South Korea, laying the foundation for a new consensus to end the trade war and strengthen diplomatic relations between the two largest economies. During the meeting, President Xi expressed pleasure in meeting President Trump, describing the working atmosphere as "warm" and thanking Trump for his role in facilitating the Gaza ceasefire. He affirmed that differences between the two countries are natural, emphasizing that both leaders must maintain direction to ensure stable US-China relations amid global volatility.

President Trump stated that the meeting achieved "many significant conclusions" and called the outcome "a 12/10 success." He affirmed that the two sides reached consensus across several key areas, marking a major step forward in bilateral relations. Preliminary information indicates that key agreements include: China will reduce the tariff on Fentanyl to 10% and commit strongly to preventing its flow into the US; tariffs on Chinese imports will be lowered from 57% to 47%; China will immediately resume purchasing US soybeans and sorghum; restrictions on rare earth exports will be lifted, ensuring stable supply for US strategic industries; and the sale of TikTok in the US will be approved. Additionally, the two sides agreed to coordinate discussions on the Ukraine issue, while Taiwan was not mentioned.

President Trump noted that the approval for exporting Nvidia chips to China is still under consideration, but both sides had in-depth discussions on technology cooperation and export controls. He emphasized that the agreements reached will create more jobs, boost prosperity, and affirmed, "America is strong again."

Other Key Crypto & Market Updates

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, conceded that he was once skeptical of crypto and still maintains a cautious attitude. However, he believes that part of the technology is real and has actual value. Dimon stated that blockchain, stablecoins, and smart contracts are all useful tools that are seeing increasing application.

Consensys, the company that developed MetaMask, is preparing for an IPO and has chosen JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as underwriters. Following the SEC's cancellation of a lawsuit related to staking services, Consensys overcame a major legal hurdle and is planning to launch its own MetaMask token and a $30 million rewards package to incentivize on-chain activity.

Pavel Durov, founder of Telegram, is launching the decentralized AI project Cocoon on the TON blockchain. This allows users to utilize AI without sharing personal data and to rent their GPU power to earn Toncoin. The project aims to protect freedom and control over personal data.

Nordea, the largest bank in the Nordic region, will allow customers to trade Bitcoin-pegged ETPs issued by CoinShares, starting in December 2025. This is a synthetic ETP that gives investors exposure to BTC's price without holding the crypto directly. Nordea will only offer trading access, not investment advice, despite having been openly skeptical of cryptocurrencies in the past.

Sources

• Bloomberg
• CoinDesk
• U.S. Treasury
• TradingView
• Reuters
• SEC
• White House Press Office
• Fed Official Statements (Jerome Powell)
• JPMorgan Chase (Jamie Dimon)
• Consensys (MetaMask)
• Pavel Durov (Telegram)
• Nordea Bank
• CoinShares
• Amazon Investor Relations
• Apple Investor Relations
• Meta Investor Relations

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.