Global Market Snapshot

On Monday, June 2 (U.S. time), U.S. stock markets closed with modest gains across all three major indices. However, futures markets signaled downside pressure. Crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel while gold continued its ascent, hitting $3,389 per ounce.

Bitcoin hovered in the $104,000–$105,000 range, showing signs of consolidation.

Some major altcoins posted gains, while the broader altcoin market remained flat. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $267.5 million at the start of the week, signaling cautious sentiment. In contrast, U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw inflows totaling $78.2 million.

On-chain data revealed that 95.79% of Bitcoin holders are still in profit, yet this metric is gradually declining, reflecting market maturity near all-time highs.

Renewed U.S.–China Trade Tensions

The U.S.–China trade relationship has once again reached an impasse. The Trump administration accused Beijing of violating the Geneva trade agreement by failing to loosen its grip on rare earth exports. In response, China claimed the U.S. was the real violator, citing Washington's escalating restrictions on software and chemical exports, revocation of student visas, and tightened semiconductor rules.

This tit-for-tat escalation underscores deep-rooted structural tensions between the two economic superpowers. Notably, the cultural gap in negotiation style remains evident. In the U.S., leaders like President Trump directly engage in early and high-stakes talks. Conversely, China reserves top-level negotiations for the final stages. That said, both President Trump and President Xi are expected to hold a phone call this week to defuse tensions.

Despite temporary tariff ceasefires, both nations are pursuing long-term strategic shifts. The U.S. aims to diversify supply chains, while China must seek alternative buyers as U.S. demand contracts.

Container shipping between the two countries has dropped sharply. Freight volume from China to the U.S. is down nearly 50% since mid-April, reaching its lowest level in over a year (excluding Lunar New Year). Even after the 90-day tariff truce declared on May 12, trade activity has yet to recover.

China Reduces U.S. Treasury Holdings

In a significant financial shift, the U.K. has overtaken China as the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. The change reflects a broader decoupling between the U.S. and China, raising questions about the future of dollar hegemony. Bank of America recently warned that the U.S. dollar (DXY) could weaken further over the summer due to ongoing trade frictions and rising sovereign debt. DXY currently sits at 98.71.

Interestingly, while DXY is falling, long-term Treasury yields are rising, a divergence that challenges conventional expectations. Historically, a weaker dollar is associated with falling bond yields—not rising ones. This unexpected decoupling presents an unfavorable environment for the Trump administration as it seeks to increase economic pressure on China.

Fed Policy and Interest Rate Outlook

In a landmark speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reflected on the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the Fed’s evolving global role. After World War II, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. This structure collapsed in 1971 when President Nixon ended gold convertibility, creating the modern fiat-based, floating exchange rate system.

Powell emphasized that while the Fed's dual mandate remains domestic (price stability and full employment), global factors are now indispensable to effective policymaking. His retrospective tone sparked speculation about whether Powell is signaling the end of his term, especially if rate cuts are further delayed and Trump returns to power in 2025.

Despite mounting pressure, Powell maintained that the Fed would not rush into cutting interest rates, particularly with inflation still above target. This leaves markets in limbo and adds complexity to the broader Bitcoin macro thesis.

Bitcoin: Double Top or Extended Supercycle?

Investor sentiment around Bitcoin is currently divided. Some fear a looming “double top” similar to the pattern seen at the end of 2021, while others anticipate a prolonged bull cycle that could extend into 2026.

Unlike previous bull markets in 2017 and 2021, today’s rally has occurred amid elevated interest rates and a less accommodative monetary environment. If the Fed postpones rate cuts until November or December, the Bitcoin cycle could stretch well beyond its typical four-year structure.

Bitcoin has rebounded from $74,000 in early April to nearly $112,000 by late May. However, the rally lacks the parabolic momentum seen in prior cycles. This has triggered comparisons to the 2021 top, when enthusiasm peaked just before a deep correction.

Still, institutional conviction remains strong. MicroStrategy recently raised its average Bitcoin purchase price to $70,000, continuing its relentless accumulation. MetaPlanet has joined the buying spree, and over 214 companies globally now hold Bitcoin in their reserves.

Forecasts for year-end are split: some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000–$250,000, while retail investors express growing anxiety. In this environment, risk management becomes more important than price prediction.

Strategic Bitcoin Bond Issuance: Opportunities and Risks

MicroStrategy's ongoing bond issuance strategy is drawing attention. The company recently purchased an additional 705 BTC for $75.1 million, bringing its total holdings to 580,955 BTC, worth roughly $40.68 billion.

To fund further purchases, MicroStrategy is issuing preferred shares (STRD) offering a 10% dividend. These are non-cumulative and can be redeemed under certain conditions. Alongside MSTR (the main equity), the company also offers STRK (convertible with 8% yield) and STRF (non-convertible, with up to 18% payout).

Michael Saylor argues that MicroStrategy’s corporate structure allows flexibility unmatched by ETFs like GBTC. For example, if MSTR trades below NAV, the company can issue STRD to repurchase common stock—boosting shareholder value.

Yet the risks are real. If Bitcoin enters a multi-year bear market, MicroStrategy may face pressure to liquidate assets, contradicting its "never sell" mantra. The strategy hinges on sustained bullish momentum.

Ethereum and Staking ETF Innovations

REX Shares plans to launch the first U.S.-based staking ETFs for Ethereum and Solana. Unlike existing ETFs that only hold assets, these will stake 50% or more of their holdings to generate yield. By utilizing a C-corp structure with a Cayman subsidiary, REX circumvents the cumbersome SEC 19b-4 approval process.

While C-corps face corporate taxes, the trade-off is speed and innovation. Bloomberg's James Seyffart applauded the move, stating that any serious ETH ETF should incorporate staking.

Separately, Sharplink Gaming plans to raise up to $1 billion to purchase ETH as treasury assets, a signal that institutions continue to diversify into crypto.

Global Crypto Developments

• Tom Lee (Fundstrat) forecasts Bitcoin could hit $250,000 in 2025 and even reach $1.2 million if it matches gold's market cap.
• MetaPlanet has increased its BTC holdings to 8,888.
• NBX (Norwegian Block Exchange) is the first public company in Norway to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve.
• Reitar Logtech Holdings (Hong Kong) plans to invest $1.5 billion in Bitcoin to hedge against traditional asset volatility.
• Poland’s new president Karol Nawrocki advocates for Bitcoin adoption and digital finance deregulation.
• Sberbank (Russia) is launching Bitcoin-linked bonds and futures contracts despite geopolitical tensions.

Political Resistance and Regulation

In the U.S., New York Comptroller Brad Lander criticized Mayor Eric Adams’ proposal to issue municipal bonds backed by Bitcoin, calling it fiscally irresponsible.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., Reform UK’s Nigel Farage pledged to implement a “Crypto Assets and Digital Finance Bill” with a 10% capital gains tax on crypto, a Bitcoin reserve fund, and banking protection for crypto users.

Bitcoin and Public Sentiment

While retail sentiment appears exhausted despite BTC’s price strength, institutional adoption and geopolitical integration of Bitcoin continue to accelerate. Public figures, major funds, and even governments are now openly debating Bitcoin’s role in finance.

The NFT artwork "Skull of Satoshi" was donated by Ripple to the Bitcoin Museum in Nashville, symbolizing reconciliation and solidarity in the crypto community.

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Trade wars, monetary uncertainty, and institutional innovation are converging. Bitcoin stands at a crossroads—either approaching a double top or entering a supercycle. Whether the bull run extends into 2026 or stalls this year, one thing remains clear: Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset. It is now embedded in global finance, politics, and regulation.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.